Brazil | Forecasts
Brazil estimates a cereal production of 260.8 million tons in harvest 2020/2021
According to Conab, the late sowing of the second harvest had an impact on the development of crops.7/12/2021
The new estimate of the National Supply Company (Conab) of Brazil for the harvest of grain in the 2020/2021 campaign is 260.8 million tons. The data is in the tenth survey of the Grain Harvest, published last thursday.
According to Conab, the late sowing of the second harvest had an impact on the development of crops. The sowing was made out of the ideal window, so the grain was more vulnerable to the climatic conditions registered in the period. "The adverse weather conditions in some producing regions had a negative impact on the estimated productivity of cereal, and the harvest of the second harvest of grain should reach 66.97 million tons, a decrease of 10.8% with respect to the previous period", explains the Company.
With the update, the yield of the corn of the second harvest can reach 4,502 kilos harvested per hectare in the current harvest, a decrease of 17.5% in comparison with 2019/2020. The sewn surface of cereals in the period registered an increase of approximately 8.1%, reaching 14.88 million hectares. Aside from the problems faced, the estimated total cereal production exceeds 93 million tons, whereas in the 1st harvest the harvest was around 24.9 million tons and for the 3rd it is expected an approximate production of 1.5 million tons.
Soybeans, in turn, have an estimated increase in production of 11.1 million tons for this harvest. With the harvest completed, the oilseed reaches a new record of 135.9 million harvested tons, keeping Brazil as the largest harvester producer in the world.
In the case of rice, the estimated production is 11.8 million tons, an increase of 5.2% with respect to the volume produced in the previous harvest. Of this total, around 92% of the product comes from irrigation crops, while the remaining 8% comes from dry land. As for the frijol, the total harvest should be kept close to 3 million tons.
According to the Conab survey, cotton exports in the second half of 2021 should reach lower levels than last year. This reduction is due to the combination of a lower production in the current harvest and a higher consumption of national industries. In this scenario, there is a trend towards a 16% recovery in the final fiber inventories in comparison with the volume revealed in the balance of the last month.
At the same time, Conab maintains its forecasts for imports at 2.3 million tons and exports at 29.5 million tons without exchange. In the case of soybeans, in 2021 the country is expected to break a record in exported volume, closing the year with an area of 86.69 million tons (a 4.5% more than the previous year). In the first six months of this year, shipments of oleaginous seeds totaled 57.56 million tons.
In the case of wheat, a remaining stock is expected for harvest 2021/22 at comfortable levels, with a volume close to 1.8 million tons. Finally, for rice, exports in June were 19% lower than in the same period of the past year. The fall is only considered the accumulated result of the first semester, reaching a reduction of 50% in the volume exported.
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