Brazil | Forecasts
Brazil foresees a 27% increase in grain production in the next decade
According to a study carried out by the Brazilian MAPA, the volume of grain production will reach 318 million tons in 2029/2030.7/29/2020
On July 28, 1860, Emperor Pedro II signed decree 1,067, which creates the Secretary of State for Agriculture, Commerce and Public Works, now called the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply, which completed 160 years on Tuesday.
Throughout the Empire, the Secretariat sought to regulate issues related to agriculture through various measures to promote and modernize production. The crops in the monarchical period were divided into two productions: sugar in the northeast and coffee in the center-south. In addition, there were smaller areas dedicated to the cultivation of other products, such as cotton in the northeast, which formed the basis of the Maranhão economy, tobacco in the Cachoeira and Santo Amaro region in Bahia and in some municipalities of Alagoas and Sergipe and also cultivation. cocoa in the south of Bahia and in some areas of Pará.
Today, agriculture has expanded, modernized, and Brazil has become an agricultural power. Agribusiness is responsible for 21% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 20% of the jobs in the country. Brazil exports to more than 200 countries and 1,500 million people have some food on their plate that comes from our agriculture.
Brazil is the world's third largest exporter of agricultural products and the main producer and exporter of important products such as sugar, coffee, orange juice, soybeans, and meat.
On this day that the Map celebrates 160 years, we want to celebrate not only the past and the present, but also project the future. In the next decade, Brazil's grain production is expected to increase 27%; that of beef, 16%; pork, 27% and chicken, 28%. The data is included in the Agribusiness Projections, Brazil 2019/20 to 2029/30, updated annually based on information covering the period from 1994 to May of this year. The study is carried out by the Secretariat of Agricultural Policy of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply, the Secretariat of Intelligence and Strategic Relations of the Brazilian Corporation for Agricultural Research (Embrapa) and the Department of Statistics of the University of Brasilia (UnB) .
The report indicates that Brazilian agriculture has a promising scenario for the next ten years, despite the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic, which affected the trajectory of the national economy throughout this year and affected some agricultural activities, such as vegetables. , fruits. and milk. "The pandemic, however, did not affect the grain harvest and the production and distribution of beef, pork and poultry," says José García Gasques, general coordinator of the Evaluation of Information Policies at the ministry and one of the coordinators of the projections.
In the projection for the next decade, Brazil will jump from the current 250.9 million tons in 2019/20 (according to a May / 2020 survey by Conab) to 318.3 million tons, a 27% increase in production national. Cotton, second crop corn and soybeans are expected to continue to drive growth in grain production.
The area planted with grains is expected to expand from 65.5 million hectares to 76.4 million hectares in 2029/30, up 16.7%. Taking into account the total area planted with crops, including grains, sugar cane, cocoa, coffee, orange, fruit and cassava, the country is expected to increase from 77.7 million hectares (2019/20) to 88.2 million (2029/30), 13.5% more. The additional need for areas can be met by replacing crops, reducing pastures and zero tillage systems.
Some crops, such as cassava, coffee, rice, oranges, and beans, are expected to lose area, but the decline will be offset by increased productivity. Projections also indicate a trend to reduce pasture area in the coming years.
The study indicates that the development of agricultural production in Brazil should continue to occur as a function of productivity. Total factor productivity (TFP) growth is projected to be 2.93% per year until 2030. This figure is the result of an analysis of trends in the reduction of employed labor, the reduction of planted area due to to gains in land productivity. and greater use of capital.
"The area planted with grains will increase 16.7% and production should increase 27%. This means that growth will be due to productivity gains. Even in border areas, productivity will drive growth, not area. Even when we use a more complete productivity indicator, the expected rate is high, "says Gasques.
The expansion of agriculture and livestock will require investments in infrastructure, research and financing, the study indicates. According to Gasques, the research aims to indicate growth directions for agriculture and provide information to policy makers on trends in agribusiness products.
The work also presents regional projections for the rural sector. Mato Grosso should continue to lead the expansion of corn and soybean production in the country.
According to the research coordinator, the study indicates that the greatest increases in the production and area of sugarcane should occur in the states of Goiás, Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais. "But São Paulo, as the largest national producer, also projects a high expansion of production and the area of this product," says Gasques.
The region called Matopiba, which comprises the closed biome of the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahía, should show an increase in area and grain production. "It is a region with great potential and that deserves a lot of attention from public policies to develop," predicts the coordinator. Projections indicate that this region should produce 32.7 million tons in an area of almost 9 million hectares at the end of the decade studied.
According to the research, productivity-based growth should occur in almost all regions of the country, especially in new regions, such as Matopiba.
Trends in international trade
In the international context, Brazil should continue to be, along with the United States, one of the largest food producers and exporters. Considered a great provider of quality food with sustainability for the world.
In meat, there will be strong pressure from the international market, especially beef and pork, although Brazil continues to lead the international chicken market.
Brazil is expected to participate with almost 52% of world soybean exports, 35.3% of chicken meat, 23.2% of corn exports, 22.7% of cotton, and 9%. 7% of pork exports.
Among the products highlighted in the increase in exports in the next decade are sugar, which will increase from 15.98 million tons in 2019/20 to 25.23 million tons in 2029/30 (57.9% more) and cotton, with an increase of 41.6%. Corn exports are expected to increase from 34.5 million tons to 44.5 million in the period, up 29.1%.
Chicken meat is expected to increase 34.3% in exports and pork meat 36.8%. Fruits also stand out, with an increase in exports of mango (57.6%), melon (47.6%) and apple (43.4%).
Family farming in projections
Activities such as floriculture and horticulture stand out in family farming. Also in the production of meat, especially pork and chicken, they stand out in this agricultural segment. Other activities, such as coffee, milk and fruits, are also family-based activities, in addition to crops such as tobacco and cassava.
Some projections of family farming in the production of the next decade can reach 11.4 million tons of cassava, 24.5 million tons of coffee, 745.2 million tons of tobacco, 2.69 million tons of pork, 8.36 million chicken meat and 20.3 billion liters of milk.
Soybeans, beans and corn are the activities in which family farming has the least participation. This may be due to large-scale production and the use of technology.
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