Morocco | Forecasts
Morocco expects a harvest of the three main cereals 206% higher than the previous season
According to the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture, this season is one of the best of the last 10 years in terms of yield, with an expected productivity 10% higher than the average of the five best campaigns since 2008.5/4/2021
The Moroccan authorities production forecast of the three main cereals for the 2020/21 season is estimated at 98 million quintals (9.8 million tonnes), that is, an increase of 54.8% compared to the average of the last five years (63.3 million quintals) and 206% compared to the previous season.
Estimates that are obtained taking into account that in Morocco, during the 2020/21 campaign, rainfall of 291 mm was registered on April 29, less than 12% compared to the average of the last 30 years (332 mm) and exceeding in 32% the previous season (221 mm) on the same date. The rainfall of the current season was also characterized by a continuity in time, a good spatial distribution and an occurrence with the key stages of cereal development (tillering, heading and filling). This season was also characterized by temperatures relatively below the levels reached in 2020.
In terms of yield, this campaign is one of the best campaigns of the last ten years for Morocco, with an expected yield 10% higher than the average yield of the five best cereal seasons (20.1 quintals / ha) since 2008.
This production is the result of a cereal area planted for this campaign of 4.35 million hectares, whose vegetative state is 75%, "good to very good".
By species, the expected cereal production is as follows:
Apart from cereals, other crops are in a favorable situation, in particular sugar beet, the harvest of which has already started. Citrus and olive trees in the flowering phase show good prospects but continue to depend on the evolution of weather conditions, especially temperatures in May and June.
In addition, and thanks to the availability of fodder in the pasture and the good cereal season in sight, the food situation of the herds has improved remarkably since the beginning of the season, announcing a recovery in the livestock sector after two seasons of drought.
After two dry seasons and the health context linked to the pandemic, the Moroccan agricultural sector expects to experience significant growth compared to 2020, thus absorbing the successive falls of 2019 and 2020 and achieving additional growth.
In fact, the expected agricultural added value could reach 130,000 million dirhams (approx. 12 million euros) by 2021, that is, a growth of 18.2%, which, according to the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture, "confirms the resilience of the agricultural sector built in recent years and the efforts and investments made to develop a solid and sustainable productive infrastructure."
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