On the occasion of the Pipfruit Market Observatory of the European Commission, WAPA (World Apple and Pear Association) presented a first update of its 2025/2026 European apple and pear forecast initially released at Prognosfruit in August 2025. The revised figures show a moderate increase in both apple and pear production for this season to reach, respectively, close to 11 million T for apples and slightly above 1.8 million T for pears. This is mainly due to favorable late-summer weather conditions that improved fruit sizes and colouring for mid and late-season varieties. While production is slightly higher than initially expected, total volumes remain well below the full potential of 13 million tonnes for apples and more than 2 million tonnes for pears, confirming for pipfruit a “medium to low” average European 2025/2026 season crop.

This provisional updated estimate brings the EU apple crop from the initial 10.4 million T released in August to reach between 10.9 and 11 million tonnes, about 5% higher than the initial August forecast. It ranks this year's crop as the 6th of the decade, and well below the peak crop of 2018 at 13.2 million tonnes. The EU pear crop is now estimated at just over 1.8 million tonnes, slightly higher than August expectations. This marks for pears the third consecutive low crop, and the fourth lowest of the decade, far from the 2010 peak of 2.7 million tonnes.

Following challenging spring conditions with late frost, weak pollination, and early-summer drought, more favorable weather conditions were recorded in September with rains and appropriate temperatures that contributed to improved yields across several Member States. The main revisions include an indicative increase for Poland (+400,000 tonnes), Germany (+60,000 to 80,000 tonnes), Belgium (+20,000 tonnes), the Netherlands (+10,000 tonnes), and France (+20,000 tonnes). Several contributors of Prognosfruit are still updating their figures, including Italy and Austria, as well as the aforementioned countries, upon the final harvesting later in November. For pears, an increase is mainly observed in Belgium (+25,000 T), the Netherlands (+10,000 T), and France (+10,000 T), an increase partially offset by a small further decline in Italy (-9,000 T).

WAPA emphasises that the updated figures reflect normal forecast adjustments as weather developments up to the end of harvesting in November can significantly influence fruit size and yields estimated in August. The organisation underlines that such revisions are part of a transparent and adaptive forecasting process.

“While this year’s crop is slightly higher than initially anticipated, the European apple and pear market remains well balanced,” said Philippe Binard on behalf of Prognosfruit. He added, “Production continues to be below full potential, stocks are clean, and new export openings are providing a positive outlook for the season”.

Although early sales in several countries were slowed by abundant garden production and cautious consumer demand, the market is now moving into full speed, supported by healthy domestic consumption and emerging export opportunities. The EU market observatory, building on some of the findings released at Prognosfruit, underlined some positive parameters for the season development. It is reminded that the season had a clean start with no overlapping stocks nor significant imports. While the intra-EU trade dynamic is not yet at its full potential in key markets such as Germany due to strong local availability, the outlook for intra-EU trade always remains as a safe bank for the sector, next to local sales. Some quality challenges have led to higher volumes being directed to the processing sector, balancing well the fresh market potential and tightening the stocks outlook for the fresh market later in the season. Despite geopolitical headwinds, export volumes are now already in full swing with volume up 20% year-on-year, buoyed by lower production in Turkey. This is creating opportunities for the EU exporters in the Middle East, India and North Africa (Egypt, Libya) and as well as elsewhere in Southeast Asia or Latin America, despite some exchange rate disadvantages for EU traders, some ongoing market access restrictions, and logistics constraints in the Red Sea.

The apple and pear sector will need to continue mitigating some challenges for positive development, including securing satisfactory prices to fully recover rising production costs, securing a diversified toolbox for yield performance, and addressing emerging biosecurity risks under climate change. It will remain key to stimulate consumption uptake with evolving consumer patterns, availability of appropriate packaging types, and increased competition from other agrifood products and the growth of other fruit categories on supermarket shelves.

Apples and pears remain the lead category in the fruit basket assortment and have a diversity of varieties to offer to consumers throughout the season. The category needs to be properly stimulated by the future vision for agriculture in the EU and the upcoming CAP reform to keep the sector competitive and attractive for the generational shift.

More about the future outlook for the apple and pear sector will be on the agenda of Prongnosfruit 2026, which will take place in Constance (Germany) on 5-7 August 2026. 

WAPA was founded in August 2001 with the objectives of providing a forum for discussion on matters of interest to the apple and pear business and initiating recommendations to strengthen the sector. The current President of the Association is Jeff Correa (Pear Bureau Northwest - USA) and the current Vice-President is Nick Dicey (Hortgro - South Africa). WAPA membership includes the following countries and areas: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Moldova, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, Scandinavia, Slovenia, South Africa, Ukraine, the UK, and the USA.