The Prognosfruit Conference is Europe’s leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, gathering apple and pear experts from across Europe and beyond. Prognosfruit 2024 is currently taking place in Budapest, Hungary. During today’s conference, WAPA (World Apple and Pear Association) released its forecast for the upcoming season of 2024/2025. The forecast for apples is set at 10,2 million t, 11,3% lower than last year. The pear crop shows a slight recovery from 2023, increasing by 4,9% to 1,79 million t. Prognosfruit, the leading annual event for the apple and pear sector, is currently taking place in Budapest, Hungary.

Prognosfruit 2024 is organised by WAPA in cooperation with FruitVeB (Magyar Zöldség-Gyümölcs Szakmaközi Szervezet). The meeting was opened with an address by István Nagy, Hungarian Minister of Agriculture, currently holding the rotating EU Presidency. He presented the agenda and priorities of the European Council of Agriculture Ministers.

This agenda includes the future direction of the agricultural policy in challenging times and the future of the CAP, to secure the competitiveness of the production, and to address the impact of climate change, the sustainability debate, food security, labour issues, and geopolitical uncertainties.

In 2024, the apple production in the EU for the top producing countries contributing to this report is estimated to decrease by 11,3% compared to last year to a total of 10.207.405 t. This year’s crop is also 13,6% below the average of the previous 3 years. Regarding the main varieties, Golden Delicious production is set to shrink by 10,2% to a total of 1.972.514 t. Gala, the second-largest variety, is expected to decrease by 11,1% (1.350.835 t). Red Delicious is estimated to grow in production (+2,8%), while Idared’s should be 18,4% lower than in 2023.

The EU pear crop for 2024, on the other hand, is estimated to grow by 4,9% compared to last year's production with a total of 1.790.229 t. This increase is due to the recovery in Italy's production (+120,5% compared to 2023) and despite a reduction in the Belgian and Dutch figures (-26,6% and -8,7% respectively). In 2024, the production of Conference pears is estimated to decrease by 13,5%, to 776.128 t. William BC pear production, on the other hand, should grow by 33,8%. Abate Fetel's production is forecasted to recover to 124.832 t (+131,8%).

The market balance will be influenced by a relative steadiness of volume destined for the fresh market due to stable production Western part of the EU in France, Italy, and Spain. On the other hand, the Central and Eastern regions of the European Union were heavily impacted by poor blossoming, late frost, and hail, leading to lower crops in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Austria. This will imply a lower supply for apple processing in the 2024/2025 season.

The outlook for the season is overall positive and should provide opportunities for better returns for the sector, which still faces the challenges of inflation and rising costs of the past months.