The problem of profitability and grain production in Mexico is going to worsen and generate an even bigger crisis than the one currently affecting the country's agriculture. International price projections in real terms show no improvement, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development is managing a budget for 2026 (75.1 billion pesos) very similar to that of 2025 (74.5 billion pesos).

This was stated by César Rafael Ocaña Romo, a consultant at NexusAgronegocios, who emphasized that with the resources and inertial actions proposed in next year's budget, it is difficult to believe that support programs for the agricultural sector will change substantially, particularly for commercial-level producers, Ocaña Romo declared.

The agricultural expert added that the "cheap" imported grains being seen today represent a systemic risk for tomorrow. Because when global supply dries up, Mexican agriculture will already be weakened, and it will be too late to recover national production, let alone achieve self-sufficiency, which is becoming increasingly distant.

Added to this is another immediate factor: the highway blockades led by grain producers are generating collateral effects in various sectors of the economy, and livestock farming is no exception. With the Sonora border closed to exports due to the screwworm infestation and with cattle inventories that could not be moved from ranches in a timely manner, producers now face another bottleneck: cattle—cows and bulls that are traded to the south of the country—are also affected by the highway closures in Sinaloa, he asserted.

On November 13 and 20, the uncertainty surrounding vehicular and transport traffic resulting from renewed protests in this Pacific region made Sinaloa a new hotspot of risk for the cattle market. The result was high volatility, with price variations of between 20 and 30 percent recorded in the two auctions held at the Sonora Regional Livestock Union in Hermosillo, he explained.

As of November 24, the marches and highway blockades continue, maintaining uncertainty and an unstable price environment for cattle.

Ocaña emphasized: This clash occurs just as many ranchers are in the middle of their cattle culling season. After the rains and the bull runs, ranches select their animals based on their productivity and send cows and bulls to market, particularly to the south of the country. The combination of a larger seasonal supply with the uncertainty and logistical restrictions for moving cattle further complicates the marketing scenario and puts downward pressure on the prices received by producers.

Adding to this scenario is the influx of meat from Brazil, a country with which Mexico does not have a free trade agreement. Brazil is diverting volumes previously exported to the United States to the Mexican market, following the imposition of high tariffs by the U.S. This influx of meat into Mexico could significantly impact the domestic meat industry, explained Ocaña.

Initially, the influx of cattle from the south-southeast—the source of the screwworm infestation—has kept live cattle prices depressed. The feedlot industry has benefited from these low prices, but now the feedlot industry itself is at risk if meat imports from the South American country increase, the consultant warned.

Ocaña continued: If this trend continues, the Mexican beef supply chain will ultimately collapse. A country that currently has sufficient meat supply to meet domestic demand, and even for export, could see its production capacity diminished.

In the short term, importing grains and foregoing subsidies and infrastructure investment—both in public goods and in goods for production units—may seem “profitable,” but agriculture is cyclical, and the day the international market lacks the necessary grain supply, there will be no price at which it can be purchased. By then, the Mexican agricultural sector could already be dismantled, the executive stated.

On the external front, the consultant noted, trade pressures from the United States persist, with recurring tariff threats and the looming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Added to this are the statements from the U.S. government itself regarding the governance situation in Mexico, related to security issues, drug trafficking, maritime operations against vessels linked to illicit activities, and migration flows.